Sydney Property Market Update: Auction Volume Up and Understanding the Transport Oriented Development (TOD) Zoning Plan
As we approach the holiday season, Sydney’s property market remains robust, with strong seller confidence and continued buyer demand across all property types. Auction volumes are on the rise, signalling a healthy market as we move towards the end of the year. In this edition of our fortnightly market wrap, we’ll provide key insights into Sydney’s property market and delve into the Ku-ring-gai Council’s Transport Oriented Development (TOD) Zoning Plan. Introduced in May 2024, this scheme aims to rezone low-density areas within 400 metres of train stations for apartment buildings. The plan targets the areas of Roseville, Lindfield, Killara, and Gordon and aims to add 23,200 new homes over the next 15 years. The Council is currently considering five possible scenarios for this development and is engaging in community consultation, which will close on 17 December 2024.
Sydney Property Market Insights:
For the week ending November 24, 2024, CoreLogic reported an auction clearance rate of 59% for the Sydney region, a result relatively consistent with the previous fortnight (down by just 0.8%). The North Sydney to Hornsby sub-region experienced a slight decline, with a clearance rate of 57.5%, a 9.8% decrease since the previous fortnight’s results.
It is estimated that for the week ending 1 December, auction volumes will increase with 1,082 homes going under the hammer in Sydney. The rise in auction activity is a positive sign, indicating a strong market as we head into the holiday season.
On a broader scale, the national Home Value Index (HVI) for all Sydney dwellings has seen a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, though there has been a slight quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.2%.
TOD Zoning – What are the options:
The Ku-ring-gai Council’s Transport Oriented Development (TOD) Zoning Plan seeks to promote residential development near key transport hubs, such as train stations, to drive sustainable growth. This scheme aligns with the New South Wales Government’s broader TOD policy, which aims to foster high density housing close to transport infrastructure, reducing car dependency, and support the efficient use of infrastructure. The TOD will cover 160 hectares of land from Roseville to Gordon, impacting 410 properties in Heritage Conservation Areas (HCAs), 4,800 existing homes, and surrounding tree canopy. The Council has proposed five potential scenarios, each offering different levels of protection for heritage areas and tree canopy. The Ku-ring-gai Council is undergoing public consultation which will run until December 17, 2024, with further deliberations in February 2025.
Here are the five proposed scenarios:
Scenario 1- Existing NSW Government Controls Retained
This option mirrors the NSW Government’s TOD planning scheme, proposing the development of 6-8 storey apartment buildings within a 400m of the train station.
Key concerns:
- Rezoning environmental areas
- No preservation of Heritage Conservation Areas (HCAs)
- Significant tree loss
- High-rise buildings located alongside low-rise housing
Scenario 2a – Safeguard and Intensify
This scenario proposes to protect 78% of HCAs from high-rise development within 400m of stations, with maximum building heights ranging from 5-25 stories.
Key Concerns:
- Partial protection of HCAs
- Taller apartment heights than the heights of 6-8 stories proposed in the NSW Government’s TOD
Scenario 2b – Minor Amendment to Existing NSW Government Controls
Under this scenario, 6-15 storey apartments will be developed within 400m of the stations, with 31% of HCAs protected.
Key Concerns:
- Heritage properties being preserved but isolated or overlooked by apartment developments
- Loss of tree canopy and environmental impact
- High-rise buildings adjacent to low-rise homes
Scenario 3a – Preserve and Intensify
This option aims to protect all HCAs within 400m of the station from high-rise development. Building development will range from 5-45 storeys, the highest maximum building height proposed among all scenarios. In residential areas maximum building height will range from 5-8 storeys. However, due to this reduction of dwelling size in residential areas, dwellings will be transferred from areas like Killara and Roseville to Lindfield and Gordon.
Key Concerns:
- Largest maximum building height out of the 5 scenarios (15-45 storeys)
- Increased population density in Gordon and Lindfield, stressing local infrastructure and current amenities
- Building of tall towers may disrupt the current suburban character of the Ku-ring-gai area
Scenario 3b – Preserve, Intensify and Expand
Like scenario 3a, scenario 3b also proposes to protect 100% of HCAs but extends the TOD boundary to 800m from stations, redistributing dwellings to reduce building height in central areas. This scenario proposes maximum building heights of between 5-20 storeys.
Key Concerns:
- Expanding the TOD boundary to 800m may impact a broader area
- Taller apartment heights (5-20 storeys) than the 6-8 storey plan initially proposed by the NSW Government’s TOD
Community feedback on these five scenarios is open until December 17, 2024, with further consideration expected in February 2025.
The Marshall Group Specific Data Insights
Attendance at The Marshall Group’s open homes throughout November has remained strong, reflecting a positive market outlook. In 2024, we have successfully sold 177 properties so far, with a total value exceeding $0.46 billion.