2026 Market Update Edition 37

Spring is well underway, and despite another interest rate rise dominating the headlines this week, the Upper North Shore property market continues to move.

In fact, one of the most encouraging signals in our latest data is the relationship between new listings and sales. 56 properties came to market and 50 sold, leaving new supply and buyer absorption remarkably close. That's a significant change from earlier reporting periods when new listings were consistently running well ahead of sales.

Buyers remain selective and highly price conscious, but they're still buying. For sellers, that's an important distinction: this is not an inactive market , it's a market where value, commitment and good negotiation are determining the outcome.

At a Glance

Here's what is shaping the Upper North Shore market this fortnight:

56 new listings entered the market, while 50 properties sold, the closest balance between new supply and sales we've recorded in recent reports.

Net supply increased by just 6 properties before withdrawals were considered.

27 properties were withdrawn or unlisted, substantially lower than some of the elevated levels recorded earlier in spring.

86 auction changes demonstrate that campaign strategies continue to evolve as buyer feedback develops.

Only 13 properties moved onto our 90+ day watchlist.

Sydney's final auction clearance rate fell to 46.2% for the week ending 20 September, before preliminary conditions softened further across the capitals the following weekend.

On 29 September, the RBA increased the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.60%, its fourth increase of 2026 and the highest cash rate since late 2011.

September home prices declined again, extending the national downturn to a sixth consecutive month.

Outlook: higher borrowing costs will test buyer confidence but locally the gap between properties entering the market and properties selling has narrowed considerably.

Market by the Numbers

Our latest Upper North Shore Market Intelligence Report recorded 280 market movements over the 14-day reporting period.

56 new listings

50 recorded sales

+6 net supply build before withdrawals

58 price changes

27 withdrawn or unlisted campaigns

86 auction changes

The standout statistic this fortnight isn't necessarily the largest number, it's the +6.

Earlier in spring, we've regularly seen new listings entering the market considerably faster than sales were absorbing them. This time, 56 new listings were met by 50 sales.

That represents a much tighter relationship between incoming supply and buyer activity. For sellers, that's encouraging. Properties are moving.

A New Interest Rate Reality

The biggest development for Australian property this fortnight came on 29 September, when the Reserve Bank increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60%.

It was the fourth increase of 2026 and takes the cash rate to its highest level since late 2011.

The increase itself wasn't a surprise. What matters more for property is the reasoning behind it  and what the RBA said about what may come next.

The Board said some of the inflation risks it had previously identified are now materialising. The Middle East conflict has broadened, energy prices have increased substantially, recent Australian inflation outcomes have been stronger than expected and higher fuel costs are beginning to flow through into other goods and services. The RBA also highlighted continuing domestic capacity pressures.

Perhaps most significantly, the Bank made it clear that further increases remain possible if required to bring inflation sustainably back towards target.

For property buyers, that means borrowing capacity and mortgage affordability are likely to remain front of mind.

For sellers, it means understanding today's buyer has a very different financial equation from the buyer of twelve months ago.

An Interesting Message from the RBA about housing

There was another important element within the RBA's statement that deserves attention.

The Bank acknowledged that housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and new housing lending has declined noticeably, while also highlighting uncertainty around the broader economic effects of the housing downturn. The RBA is tightening monetary policy while being fully aware that housing conditions are already weakening. Its priority remains inflation.

That suggests homeowners shouldn't necessarily assume that softer property prices alone will result in rapid interest rate relief.

For buyers and sellers, the better approach is to make decisions around the market that exists today rather than trying to predict exactly when the interest rate cycle will turn.

Sydney's Spring Market has lost some momentum

Sydney's auction market also softened during the reporting period.

After showing encouraging improvement earlier in September, Sydney's final clearance rate fell to 46.2% for the week ending 20 September, down from 52.8% the previous week and the lowest result since early August. There were 569 Sydney auctions during the week. The following weekend brought a significant increase in Sydney auction volume, with around 790 homes taken to auction, the city's busiest week since late May. Across the combined capitals, however, the preliminary clearance rate fell to a ten-week low.

Buyers were already anticipating another interest rate increase, and that uncertainty was inevitably influencing confidence.

With the RBA decision now known, buyers can at least calculate their position against a definite cash rate of 4.60% rather than speculation.

The next few weeks will tell us how quickly the market absorbs that adjustment. 

50 properties sold against 56 new listings.

That's a meaningful level of absorption. Compare that with some of our previous reporting periods:

8–21 August: 112 new listings versus 70 sales — +42 supply

22 August–4 September: 91 new listings versus 45 sales — +46 supply

5–16 September: 71 new listings versus 48 sales — +23 supply

Latest period: 56 new listings versus 50 sales — just +6 supply

We shouldn't assume from one reporting period that a new trend has been established, but it is certainly something worth watching.

If sales continue to absorb new listings at this rate, buyers may not experience the substantial spring stock build many were expecting.

And that could help provide some support for well-positioned property.

Fewer Withdrawals are another Encouraging Signal

There is another interesting change occurring beneath the surface.

Only 27 properties were withdrawn or unlisted during this reporting period.

Earlier periods recorded considerably higher numbers, including 77 withdrawals in late August.

Fewer withdrawals alongside stronger sales absorption may indicate that more vendors and buyers are finding a price at which they're prepared to transact.

That is ultimately what a functioning property market requires. Not rising prices and not falling prices but agreement.

Auction Strategy in a Changing Market

Our data recorded 86 auction changes this fortnight.

That remains elevated and reinforces why flexibility is so important as auction conditions can change quickly.

Sydney moved from a 52.8% final clearance rate in the week ending 13 September to 46.2% just one week later.

That doesn't mean auction is the wrong method, it means an auction campaign needs to be actively managed.

The best agents aren't simply running a four-week timetable, they're constantly interpreting buyer behaviour and adjusting the campaign to maximise the vendor's negotiating position.

Committed Buyers Matter More than Crowd Size

In today's environment, the number of people inspecting a property can sometimes be misleading.

Ten groups through an open home sounds encouraging and ten registered bidders sounds even better but what ultimately matters, is how many people genuinely want to own the property and have the capacity to do so. The job of a strong campaign is to identify those buyers early, understand their motivation and keep them engaged long enough to compete.

That means buyer follow-up, database intelligence and negotiation are essential and at The Marshall Group, our collaborative network allows buyers to be identified and shared across our offices and campaigns rather than existing within individual agent databases. In a selective market, that reach matters.

Looking Ahead

The next few weeks will be particularly revealing.

The RBA has delivered another increase, Sydney auction conditions have softened and September home-price data confirms that the broader housing correction is continuing.

Yet locally, our numbers contain some genuinely encouraging signals.

50 sales against 56 new listings, withdrawals down to 27 and only 13 properties moving onto the 90+ day watchlist.

So perhaps the best description of the Upper North Shore market right now isn't simply "strong" or "weak", it's active, selective and adjusting.

For sellers, that places even greater importance on understanding the competition, positioning accurately, identifying committed buyers and negotiating decisively when the opportunity presents itself.

At The Marshall Group, that's where our real-time local market intelligence, collaborative office network, extensive buyer database and experienced negotiation come together.

Interest rates may have changed again, but the fundamentals of a successful property campaign haven't: create attention, build confidence, generate competition and negotiate from the strongest possible position.