2026 Market Update Edition 38

Spring is bringing more properties to market but buyers are becoming increasingly selective about which homes they are prepared to purchase.

Across the Upper North Shore, the latest fortnight has produced a noticeable change in market conditions. New listings have increased sharply, while recorded sales have slowed, giving buyers considerably more choice and creating greater competition between properties.

Against a backdrop of higher interest rates and continued uncertainty about the economic outlook, purchasers are approaching decisions carefully. However, well-positioned homes are still finding buyers and opportunities are emerging for those prepared to make informed decisions.

The challenge for sellers is no longer simply attracting attention, it's converting that attention into genuine competition.

At a Glance

Here's what is shaping the Upper North Shore property market this fortnight:

98 new listings entered the market, compared with 35 recorded sales.

Net supply increased by 63 properties, a substantial reversal from the previous reporting period's increase of just six.

44 properties were withdrawn or unlisted, up from 27 in the previous period.

80 auction changes indicate campaigns continue to be actively adjusted.

Sydney's final auction clearance rate was 49.3% for the week ending 4 October, during the long weekend when auction volumes were unusually low.

The RBA cash rate remains at 4.60%, with the next decision scheduled for 3 November.

The takeaway: Spring activity is building but the increase in available property is currently outpacing the number of buyers committing to a purchase. The market remains active, although the importance of accurate pricing, strong buyer engagement and skilled negotiation is becoming increasingly apparent.

Sydney's Broader Market Reflects Caution

The latest Sydney market indicators reinforce what we're observing locally. According to the realestate.com.au September Home Price Report, Australian home prices declined for the sixth consecutive month, falling 0.2% nationally during September and sitting 3.3% below their March peak.

Sydney and Melbourne continued to experience price declines, with higher borrowing costs and subdued buyer confidence weighing on demand.

The report also identified softer auction clearance rates, longer selling periods and weaker transaction volumes as characteristics of the current spring market.

The important distinction is that market conditions remain uneven.

Some properties continue to attract competition, while others require substantial negotiation or a revised pricing position before a transaction can be achieved.

That variation is particularly relevant across the Upper North Shore, where individual property characteristics can have a significant influence on buyer demand.

Auction Conditions Remain Challenging

Sydney's auction market has continued to reflect cautious buyer sentiment.

Cotality reported a 49.3% final clearance rate for the week ending 4 October, compared with 48.4% the previous week.

While that represented a modest improvement, auction volumes fell sharply over the October long weekend, with just 299 Sydney auctions compared with 774 the preceding week.

The following weekend saw scheduled auction volumes return towards more typical spring levels, with approximately 720 properties scheduled across Sydney.

However, activity remains well below the corresponding period last year.

This is an important reminder that auction clearance rates should never be considered in isolation.

The number of properties offered, the level of competition, withdrawn campaigns and the difference between preliminary and final results all contribute to the broader picture.

Locally, our data recorded 80 auction changes during the fortnight.

That reinforces the importance of choosing the right selling method and retaining flexibility throughout a campaign.

Auction remains an effective way to create competition and urgency, but it is not a substitute for genuine buyer engagement.

The most successful campaigns are those that recognise when competition is strongest and respond accordingly.

Another important indicator is the number of properties leaving the market without a recorded sale.

This fortnight, 44 properties were withdrawn or unlisted, compared with 27 in the previous period.

There can be several explanations for these movements.

Some vendors may have decided to delay their sale. Others may be reviewing their expectations, changing agents, considering alternative methods of sale or preparing to relaunch.

While the reasons differ, the combined figure suggests that a meaningful number of campaigns are being reconsidered.

This is not necessarily a negative development, markets adjust when buyers and sellers respond to new information.

However, it does demonstrate the importance of understanding buyer feedback early and being prepared to act on it.

The objective should always be to give a property the strongest possible opportunity to sell, rather than simply extending a campaign and hoping conditions improve.

Interest Rates Continues to Influence Confidence

The Reserve Bank's September decision to increase the cash rate to 4.60% remains an important influence on buyer sentiment.

The increase was the fourth of 2026, and the Bank has made clear that inflation remains its primary concern.

The next monetary policy decision is scheduled for 3 November.

For purchasers, higher borrowing costs affect both borrowing capacity and the ongoing affordability of a mortgage.

For sellers, this means the financial circumstances of today's buyers may be quite different from those purchasing twelve months ago.

However, it is important not to assume that all buyers will respond in the same way.

Those with substantial equity, limited borrowing requirements or compelling reasons to relocate may be considerably less sensitive to changes in interest rates.

This is another reason why identifying the right buyer for each property is so important.

Why Upper North Shore Remains Different

While Sydney-wide figures provide useful context, the Upper North Shore continues to have characteristics that distinguish it from many other markets.

Ku-ring-gai remains a highly desirable residential area, supported by established neighbourhoods, quality schools, transport connections, green space and strong family appeal.

Many purchasers are making long-term decisions about where they want to live and raise their families.

Those underlying motivations remain intact.

However, buyers are becoming more selective about the properties they are prepared to purchase.

A well-presented home with a functional floorplan, desirable location and attractive outdoor space may continue to generate competition.

Conversely, properties with significant compromises, whether related to location, condition, layout or price ,may require greater adjustment.

In this environment, broad suburb averages can only tell part of the story.

Why Negotiation Has Become More Important

In a strong market, competition can often develop naturally.

When multiple buyers are determined to secure the same property, the auction process or a competitive negotiation can drive the price higher.

Today's environment requires a more considered approach.

A campaign may attract plenty of enquiries and inspections but only a small number of genuinely committed purchasers.

That makes the quality of buyer engagement more important than the volume of activity alone.

Understanding a buyer's circumstances, motivation, competing options and capacity to purchase can make a substantial difference.

Equally important is ensuring vendors receive accurate, timely feedback so they can make informed decisions when genuine offers emerge.

At The Marshall Group, our collaborative office network, shared buyer intelligence and experienced negotiation allow us to work across campaigns to identify and engage purchasers who may be suitable for a property.

In a market where committed buyers are increasingly valuable, that collective approach becomes an important advantage.

Looking Ahead, The Next Few Weeks Will Be Important

The remainder of October will provide an important test of Sydney's spring market.

New listings are arriving, interest rates remain elevated and buyers continue to demonstrate considerable price sensitivity.

Our latest Upper North Shore figures highlight that clearly:

But they also confirm that transactions are continuing and opportunities remain.

The key question over the coming weeks will be whether sales activity increases sufficiently to absorb the additional stock entering the market.

If it does, conditions may begin to stabilise.

If new listings continue to substantially outpace sales, competition between vendors is likely to intensify.

For sellers, that makes the decisions taken before and during a campaign particularly important.

Accurate pricing, compelling presentation, targeted marketing, proactive buyer engagement and experienced negotiation can all influence whether a property stands out or becomes one of several competing alternatives.

At The Marshall Group, our focus remains on combining detailed local market intelligence with our collaborative team approach to create the strongest possible selling environment for our clients.

Spring is bringing opportunity but it is also demanding greater precision. For sellers who understand the market and respond strategically, there are still excellent outcomes to be achieved.